The Future of Japan in Ascending, but Aging East Asia

Japan's politics and society appear to be sinking deeper into turmoil and lethargy. Numerous signs abound: politicians intent on deposing each other rather than engaging in policy discourse; a sadistic bent by some of the media; diplomacy carried out on an ad hoc basis; a budget-cutting panel (shiwake) by populist politicians that shrinks long term social investment and innovative initiatives; indifference toward expansion of opportunities for the young generation and women. Can we stand by and accept this plight at the time when Japan moves toward becoming a society of an unprecedented mature population (evident in its aging demographic and low birth rate). Is it not that what is required at this very moment are a proactive stance and the will to fabricate together a vision for the direction Japan should pursue based on a reconfirmation of Japan's historic and international position? *** The aggregate total of real GDP (on purchasing power parity basis) for China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore has risen to $ 15.8 trillion in 2009 (IMF estimate). This is comparable to $ 15.5 trillion of the U.S. and Canada ($17.0 trillion for NAFTA including Mexico), and it has overtaken the EU's $ 14.8 trillion. How will these East Asian economies that have turned into a major economic region progress in the future? Will China continue its rapid economic growth and grasp regional hegemony? Is Japan's presence fated to become increasingly less relevant? The size of GNP of a country matters in terms of her abilities to have impacts on global markets, to invest in public goods including defense and so on. However, let us focus here on per capita income as a proxy measure of economic development and individual economic welfare. Using official data from Japan, China, and Korea, I analyzed the sources of growth of per capita GDP and have presented the results in the accompanying chart I. There are striking similarities in the high growth patterns of In all three cases shift of agricultural employment to more efficient industrial and service sectors, combined with a ―demographic bonus‖ (that is, production growth due to an labor force increase brought about by a high birth rate in the previous period), were major contributing factors. Currently, the per capita GDP of China's coastal region indeed approaches Japan's toward the end of the 1970s and Korea's of the mid-1980s; but coastal China's agricultural employment rate at …